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Project # 33
A Universal Simulation and Forecasting System

Team Lead: Ram Raythattha
Other Team Members: Ravi Raythattha
Faculty Advisor(s): Dr. Ogan Gurel
Department: BE
Project Type: Other Undergraduate
Title: A Universal Simulation and Forecasting System
Abstract: This research introduces a novel approach to simulation and forecasting. Current methods of forecasting essentially fall into three categories: deterministic, stochastic and, more recently with the rise of AI, predictive analytics. While deterministic methods can provide explicit explanations for the forecasts, AI-based predictions suffer from a fundamental lack of such explanation. Beyond compromising trust in the results, this problem can also limit the utility of such AI-driven forecasts. Our approach combines the big data advantages of AI with the explanatory power of deterministic (differential equations based) methods. We utilize massive sets of idealized differential equations parameterized via AI utilizing a fusion of database and matrix algebra techniques to construct comprehensive and efficient simulations. The comprehensiveness of these simulations reduces systematic error and thus increases accuracy, while the matrix implementation optimizes efficiency. Furthermore, the agnostic nature of the idealized equations means that any set of parameterizations can be applied, implying that this simulation engine is essentially universal. We demonstrate the system in forecasting student enrollment at UTA for the coming decade, but in principle the forecasting engine can be applied to any business, scientific, or engineering purpose.
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